The Brink, the Stink, and the Kitchen Sink.
Current Events Analysis.
On Monday June 23, 2025:
Iran has attacked United States forces stationed at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, saying it was retaliating against the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites.
Any person reading has to pause for a moment and let those words sink in. This is the first time in known world history that a nation state, with a national government, and national authority has attacked the United States of America, since World War II.
Do people not understand the ramifications of an event like this? Do people not appreciate the magnitude of the multiple crises happening throughout Europe, the Middle East, and Asia?
Hey YO. If you are reading this, and you think your cozy little prim rose suburban Western life style is insulated from the missles that hit that base in Qatar, you might want to consider visiting a mental health professional. You might not be affected by the delusion, the denial, the blatant mental illness, but the vast majority of Americans are.
Why?
Through historical data we can observe a trend in market reactions to similar crises on the global stage when they occur. The behavior of investors is usually as follows. The price of crude oil surges. Gold, Silver and other commodities see some positive traffic. There is confidence in investments that have “real-world” value.
Stock markets ultimately slide downwards. This does not take on the form of a full blown crash. Just a knee jerk reaction downwards as people are uncertain what others will do. Think of it in terms of a game of chicken. The sudden anxiety of who is going to commit to the first move? Or also a game of chess. Who will commit to the first irreparable mistake?
Again Why?
Stock market speculation always presents an inherent risk, to varying degrees. In times of crises however, the demand for commodities from the consumer public will always remain. In laymen terms, people might not be able to afford vacations, movies, or even a trip to a dentist. But they all need to eat.
Oil market reaction to war and global conflict is very well explained by an essay from Columbia university:
”The world experiences perpetuating patterns of military conflict, followed by oil supply crises, and accompanying global financial instability. In effect, the Middle East resource curse has become globalized. The challenges this is presenting on humanitarian, security and economic fronts have become increasingly dangerous. The arms race that has accompanied the rise of oil prices over the 2000s has been no exception and is now all the more complicated due to the violent participation of sub-national radicalized groups that are less susceptible to diplomatic pressures or initiatives.”
Why then do historic trends show a rise in crude oil prices in times of crises, and on the day of a crescendo of escalating conflict in the middle east does the smell of crude stink to high heavens? Why is everyone running for the exit? Why is the price of the sweet, sweet go-go juice taking the proverbial crap?
Chart courtesy of investing.com:
The stock markets did in fact experience a dip as one would expect during the attack of Pearl Harbour, as illustrated in this Yahoo Finance publication:
So why then can we observe a steep rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in wake of a bold face attack by a Middle Eastern aggressor nation in the middle of an escalating conflict?
Chart courtesy of investing.com:
The evidence is in the numbers. One can only look at this data and form two plausible logical conclusions.
1. The average investor is completely desensitized to escalating conflicts through out the world is deeming this is (as what social media influencers are calling) a “nothing burger”.
2. The big players, also known as whales on Wall Street. — You know the kind they talked about in movies like The Big Short… Those megalomaniacs on Wall street and Bay street were tipped off and KNEW this was going to happen.
Neither scenario is good. The world is on the brink of all out full blown war! But hey as long as the backyard is manicured, the BBQ is running and the cooler is full, life is good right? WRONG!! It’s time for the average shmucks of the world to wake up and start holding people accountable.